They just need 3 plus the White House. And if they do only get 2 and McConnell starts out 2021 with a 51-49 majority, he is going to have a Mask Maker If You Think My Hands Are Full You Should See My Heart Shirt. Caucus together to blockade all judicial nominees, especially another SCOTUS seat. Assuming the Ds win the presidency. And either Warren or Sanders is the nominee, The Republic Governor of MA VT is going to nominate the senator to the vacated seat. And then the Democratic candidate would need to unseat a moderate Republican in a special election. Manchin won’t be a problem. He will not vote against any SCOTUS nominee and most importantly, he’ll cast a vote in favor of a Democrat to be majority leader and chair of the judiciary committee. He’ll be annoying. But he won’t be the cause of a blockade of nominees.
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And 2020 is a good map relative to the Senate as a whole. The Senate map across all 3 cycles is biased in favor of Republicans. It is what it is. I think Dems can pick up AZ and ME. NC, IA are tossups. GA has, as you said, 2 seats and could be in play. KS, if they nominate Kobach, can be in play. They just need 3 plus the White House. And if they do only get 2 and McConnell starts out 2021 with a 51-49 majority, he is going to have a very hard time keeping his caucus together to blockade all judicial nominees, especially another SCOTUS seat. If he does that the new president should just fill the seat without the Senate vote and let McConnel try to stop the judge from walking through the door.
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There are midterm elections, and Republican fuckery over the supreme court will be punished. 2016 was a Republican wave year in certain states. The result is that the Mask Maker If You Think My Hands Are Full You Should See My Heart Shirt. And there are way more Republicans up for re-election than democrats. Giving us an opportunity for pickups either to expand our majority or take it. I don’t care if Hillary fucking Clinton were somehow the nominee again, you Americans have no excuse to not vote that orange grandpa-child out. Since she made it to 2020 we are safe, right? Republicans said you shouldn’t vote on any new Supreme Court justices.
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