People’s health is always more important than economic indicators, that’s why. I’m not really sure what you are suggesting? The stock market is down 30%, the Official They Ceedee Rollin They Hatin Shirt. They are offering small business loans that potentially are granted. COVID has merely accelerated market trends. Companies that were struggling, this very likely could be the nail in the coffin. Most companies that were profitable are very well expected to make it when we come out of this. Some companies will even be positioned better: ZOOM, MSFT, Intel, Amzn. It’s going to be a quick shift of industry and capital allocation in this country. But as long as some sort of remedy resolves of this quickly, the economy will be fine.
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So how do we fix the economy? We find a remedy to the problem. Which the problem is people’s health so that needs to be our concern right now. They are most likely waiting to see if more US shale companies go bankrupt and US govt. response. If govt. is going to bailout shale firms with unlimited and forgivable loans it means price war is pointless because the original intent was to destroy the Official They Ceedee Rollin They Hatin Shirt. But if the US public turns on govt. for bailing out oil companies and anger is strong enough to stop or impede bailout, Russia and Saudis will probably come up with a symbolic gesture of cuts but attempt to maintain low enough prices to try to further damage US shale.
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I’m curious how long the idea of this being largely contained in the Q2 will prop up the S&P? Your analysis notes that models show it could go down to 176. Does anyone have any thoughts on when the bottom will eventually fall out? I doubt it will drop sub-190, but confidence has to eventually erode. I am aiming for an Official They Ceedee Rollin They Hatin Shirt. At that point, I’m probably just emptying my wallet on stocks. I remember aluminum companies shooting up in value when the new F150 was made from all-aluminum. Thoughts? What’s more likely to be seen is the effect of the quarantine and aggressive action in those countries that are heavily testing resulting in a decrease of new cases.
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